Trump was poised to hit button on Iran strikes, then came the reality check
Tens of thousands of demonstrators have been arrested and are in Iranian prisons, which human rights groups say are known for torture and other abuses.
The message: ‘Avoid military action’
Iran wasn’t the only concerned country to urgently communicate with the White House.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman and other Arab allies united to urge Trump to maintain his diplomatic options with Iran, the senior Arab diplomat and gulf official said.
“The message to Washington is to avoid military action,” the official said. “Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Egypt were on the same page in the sense that there will be consequences for the wider region in terms of security and the economy as well, which will ultimately impact the US.”
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the country’s de facto leader, spoke to Trump by phone during the week to plead his case, according to a Saudi diplomat and a US official. Salman and the leaders of other US allies in the Middle East were concerned about how Iran would retaliate in the event of US strikes.
Iran had begun warning gulf states that its retaliation would not be as calibrated as it had been after the US attack on its nuclear facilities in June, when Iran telegraphed its intentions and then lobbed roughly a dozen missiles at the al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, according to multiple officials. There were also concerns that Iran’s proxies, including Hezbollah, could launch their own attacks, which would pose a more serious risk without an American aircraft carrier strike group in the region.
Israel wasn’t ready either, particularly without a large supporting US naval presence. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had launched a massive military and intelligence operation against Iran’s nuclear facilities and scientists in June, called Trump on Wednesday and asked him not to strike because Israel was not fully prepared to defend itself, the person close to the White House said. The leaders spoke twice, a US official said.
A key factor contributing to Israel’s vulnerability was the absence of major US military assets, which Israel has relied on increasingly to shoot down retaliatory strikes from Iran in exchanges between the two nations over the past 21 months, a US official said. The US support has come at a rising cost to Washington’s stockpile of interceptors, the official said.
Throughout Wednesday, Washington’s Arab allies were unsure whether their overtures would succeed. But a factor in their favour was Trump’s uncertainty that the military options in front of him would have a decisive and predictable outcome, and wouldn’t result in problematic consequences for the region – or his own sterling track record of using US military power quickly and cleanly, the senior Arab diplomat said.
The diplomatic lobbying encouraged Trump to stand down, according to a Saudi diplomat, two European officials and an individual briefed on the matter.
At the Pentagon on Wednesday, aides to senior leaders were prepared to stay late into the night in anticipation of US strikes. About 3.30pm, they got word they could go home as normal.
Vance ultimately agreed with the president’s decision to hold off, a person familiar with the process said.
The president will have another opportunity to sign off on strikes against Iran in the next two to three weeks, when US assets headed toward the region will be in place, helping allay Israel’s concerns about its own protection, officials said.
The threat level is not expected to subside soon: The US military’s Central Command has been directed to plan staffing for 24/7 high-level support “for the next month”, a person monitoring the situation told The Washington Post.
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